TTDNASDAQThe short version
The Trade Desk, Inc.
The Trade Desk runs the largest independent demand-side platform, where advertisers buy programmatic advertising across connected TV, video, and display. It is founder-controlled, debt-free, and cash-generative, and trades about 86% below its late-2024 peak.
From a December 2024 close of $139.51, the shares have fallen about 86% to $19.53, reaching a low of $17.33 in June 2026.
$19.53
Share price
$9.3B
Market cap
$2.90B
FY2025 revenue
$1.3B
Net cash, no debt
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Financials
A profitable, cash-rich business whose growth rate has roughly halved
FY2021 → FY2025as reported · $
Revenue$2.9B+18%
Operating margin20.3%+2.9pp
Net income$443M+13%
EPS$0.90+15%
Free cash flow$796M+24%
Open the full statements →- Revenue. The top line rose from $1.95B in FY2023 to $2.90B in FY2025, but the growth rate fell from 26% to 18%, with consensus near 10% for FY2026 and FY2027.
- Margins. GAAP operating margin roughly doubled over three years to 20.3%, and free cash flow reached $796M — about 1.8 times GAAP net income of $443M.
- Balance sheet. The company holds about $1.3B of cash and short-term investments against no drawn debt, and repurchased $1.38B of stock in FY2025.
Figures as reported. The adjusted profitability the market quotes adds back roughly $491M of annual stock-based compensation, so adjusted earnings run close to double the GAAP figure.
Valuation
Cheap on headline cash flow, merely fair once stock pay is charged
The multiple depends on which profit you credit
| Profit measure (FY2025) | EV multiple | Yield on EV |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA | 6.7x | 14.9% |
| Free cash flow | 10.1x | 9.9% |
| GAAP net income | 18.1x | 5.5% |
| Owner FCF, after stock pay | 26.3x | 3.8% |
At $19.53, enterprise value is about $8.03B. Owner FCF charges the $490.6M stock-comp add-back as the real cost it is.
- Cheap on one measure. Free cash flow of $795.7M is just 10.1x enterprise value, a 9.9% yield a reverse-DCF reads as pricing in almost no long-run growth.
- Fair on another. Charged as a real cost, the $490.6M stock-comp add-back cuts free cash flow to about $305M of owner cash — 26.3x enterprise value, a 3.8% yield for a roughly 10% grower.
- The cash is not illusory. Cash taxes actually paid fell to $150.1M from $158.6M as pretax income rose about 30%, stock comp keeps shrinking as a share of revenue, and the $1.38B buyback more than offset dilution.
At $19.53 The Trade Desk's ~$8.03B enterprise value is just 10.1x free cash flow — a 9.9% yield a reverse-DCF reads as pricing in almost no long-run growth — yet that free cash flow is doubly flattered: it adds back $490.6M of stock-based compensation (owner cash ~$305M, 26.3x EV, a 3.8% yield), and 97% of its 34% FY2025 growth was a one-year OBBBA deferred-tax swing of $244.6M that left underlying operating cash roughly flat at ~$825M versus ~$816M.
Ownership & pay
Half the vote on a tenth of the economics, and a worthless option
Economic stake vs voting power
Class B carries ten votes to Class A's one; the founder holds most of the say on a fraction of the shares.
- Control. Two share classes give Green 49.7% of the vote on about 11% of the economics, inside a founder-friendly Nevada charter and a board that just shrank to five, so outside holders have little formal leverage.
- Alignment. His 2021 performance option, struck at $68.29 with hurdles running to $340, is worthless at $19.53 — and in March 2026 he bought about $148M of stock near the lows, fresh personal capital.
- The other side. The proxy's negative $856.8M 'compensation actually paid' is mark-to-market paper, not cash out the door, and an April 2025 $30M time-vesting grant pays whether or not the stock recovers.
Jeff Green controls 49.7% of The Trade Desk's votes on roughly 11% of its economics inside a founder-friendly Nevada charter and a board that just lost three directors, so outside holders have little formal leverage; but his 2021 performance option (strike $68.29, hurdles to $340) is worthless at $19.53 and he bought about $148 million of stock in March 2026, so his downside is the shareholder's downside.
Balance sheet
No debt to default on: the downside is valuation, not survival
$1.3B
Cash & investments
$0
Drawn debt
$2.73
Net cash per share
$796M
Free cash flow+24% YoY
FY2025, as reported. Net cash is about 14% of the share price.
- Liquidity. The company ended FY2025 with about $1.3B of cash and short-term investments and no drawn debt; net cash is roughly $2.73 a share, about 14% of the price.
- Pass-through, not leverage. The $3.8B receivable is gross advertising spend invoiced for clients, more than covered by $3.0B of payables — a flow the company collects and pays on, not a solvency risk.
- A floor, not the thesis. The cash cushion takes bankruptcy close to zero, but this is an operating business, not an asset play; a margin of safety has to come from earnings bought cheaply.
Price
An 86% fall from the 2024 peak repriced a onetime high-flyer
Daily close from the 2016 listing to July 2026. The de-rating removed the growth premium.
- From peak to trough. The shares closed at $139.51 in December 2024 and about $19.53 today, reaching a low of $17.33 in June 2026 — the growth premium is gone.
- What changed underneath. A Q4 2024 platform migration and sales stumble, then six straight quarters of slowing revenue growth, reset expectations rather than the balance sheet.
- Why it can matter. At roughly 22x trailing GAAP earnings and 6.7x adjusted EBITDA, the price alone no longer disqualifies a business that is still growing and profitable.
Competitive position
The largest independent buyer in a market its rivals also sell into
Who does what in the ad-buying stack
| Platform | Owns media? | Primary battleground |
|---|---|---|
| The Trade Desk | No | Open internet, CTV |
| Google (DV360) | Yes | Display, video, search |
| Amazon DSP | Yes | Owned inventory, CTV |
| Viant | No | Open internet (smaller) |
| Meta | Yes | Social, in-app |
Independent buy-side positioning, synthesized from the company's filings and calls.
- Structural independence. The Trade Desk owns no media and works only for the buy side, avoiding the conflict its largest rivals carry; client retention has held above 95% for eleven straight years.
- Scale in its lane. At $2.9B of revenue it is roughly eight times Viant, the next independent platform, and connected TV — premium, data-rich inventory — is now its largest channel.
- The tailwind is shared. A digital ad market above $700B is real runway, but connected-TV and AI growth accrue to the walled gardens too, which is why forward growth is modeled near 10%.
Growth
Six straight quarters of deceleration, into a single-digit guide
Revenue growth, year over year
Guidance kept falling through the completed platform migration management blamed for the miss.
- The rate is the story. Year-over-year growth stepped down from 25% in early 2025 to a Q2 2026 guide of about 8% — the first single-digit guided quarter.
- Cyclical or structural. The slide continued past the December 2024 reorganization and platform migration, so the completed fix alone has not restored the rate.
- Why it matters most. The valuation's roughly 5% implied long-run growth on owner cash is conservative only if the top line settles in the high-single to low-double digits.
Pricing
Revenue outgrew platform spend, lifting the take rate to 21.6%
Revenue growth vs gross-spend growth
Take rate held near 20.3% for years, then reached 21.6% in FY2025 as the lines diverged.
- Pricing power held. Revenue as a share of the $13.4B spent on the platform rose to 21.6% from a stable 20.3%, as a data-rich CTV mix let the company keep more per dollar.
- The other reading. Gross spend — the raw demand beneath revenue — grew only 11% in FY2025, so part of the 18% top-line growth is take-rate expansion that need not repeat.
- What would flip it. The company's own risk factor names volume discounts and mix as forces that could invert this; gross spend outpacing revenue would signal the premium compressing.
Cash flow
Most of the reported free cash flow is a stock-pay add-back
FY2025 free cash flow, $795.7M
Owner cash, after stock pay$305M38%
Stock-comp add-back$490.6M62%
Free cash flow of $795.7M less the $490.6M non-cash stock-comp add-back leaves about $305M.
- Charge the pay. Free cash flow of $795.7M includes a $490.6M stock-compensation add-back; treated as the real cost it is, owner cash was about $305M.
- A one-year tax swing. Operating cash flow jumped 34% to $992.7M, but 97% of that gain was a $244.6M deferred-tax benefit; underlying operating cash was roughly flat near $825M.
- The trend cuts back. Stock comp has fallen from 25% of revenue to 17% in three years, and cash taxes actually paid slipped to $150.1M — so the flatterers shrink over time.
Estimates
A single-digit forward multiple, on a number still being cut
Consensus adjusted EPS estimates
FY2026 adjusted EPS cut about 11% over ninety days; downgrades still outnumber upgrades.
- Optically cheap. Consensus models about $1.85 and $2.15 of adjusted EPS for FY2026 and FY2027 — roughly 11x and 9x — but on the adjusted basis that adds back stock pay.
- Still falling. The FY2026 estimate has been cut about 11% in ninety days, and over the past month downward revisions outnumbered upward ones by roughly nine to one.
- Sentiment cautious. Of 36 analysts, 13 rate it buy, 19 hold and 4 sell; the mean target is $24.42, about 25% above the price, within a wide $11–$38 range.
Scenarios
Three coherent paths, bracketed by the analyst target range
How the outcomes fan out
| Scenario | Revenue growth | Arm's-length anchor |
|---|---|---|
| Bear | Breaks below 8% | ~$11 low target |
| Base | High-single to low-double digits | ~$24 mean, +25% |
| Bull | Reaccelerates toward low-teens | ~$38 high target |
The founder's March 2026 buying, at $23.49 to $25.08, landed in the base band.
- Where evidence clusters. Consensus mean and median targets sit near $24.50, and the founder's open-market buying landed in the same low-to-mid $20s band.
- The bull needs a print. A quarter that reaccelerates the rate, rather than clearing a lowered bar, would turn the assumed 10% base from a hope into a demonstrated floor.
- The bear's gauge. Gross spend grew just 11% against 18% revenue; if it keeps lagging, part of reported growth was non-repeating rate and the de-rating was correct.
Valuation
On owner cash the price is fair; a bargain needs growth to hold
Analyst target range vs price
Bear (low target)
$11
Consensus mean
$24.42
Consensus median
$24.50
Bull (high target)
$38
Mean target about 25% above the price, within a $11 to $38 spread.
- What the price embeds. On headline free cash flow the price implies roughly no long-run growth; on owner cash, after stock pay, it implies about 5% — close to fair for a ~10% grower.
- Not deeply cheap. At 26.3x owner cash and a 3.8% yield, the stock is a reasonable price for a quality franchise rather than a clear bargain with a wide margin of safety.
- What would change it. A price nearer $14 to $15, stock comp settling in the mid-teens as a share of revenue, or growth re-accelerating would restore a double-digit owner-cash yield.
What to watch
No longer expensive, not yet a bargain — the next prints decide
- 01Q2 2026 revenue growth, due early August: above ~10% supports the base case; at or below the ~8% guide favors the bear.
- 02Take rate versus gross spend: holding near 21% confirms pricing power; gross spend outpacing revenue signals compression.
- 03Cash taxes and the OBBBA benefit: whether the FY2025 deferred-tax tailwind persists or reverses toward owner cash.
- 04Insider activity and estimate revisions: continued founder buying and a halt to downgrades, versus more selling and further cuts.
This distills a guided study built chapter by chapter, from the as-reported statements to scenarios and a dated watch list.
Compiled from the full report · 2026-07-12 · For information, not investment advice.